Here Are 34 Polls That Show A Ceasefire & Weapons Embargo Help Kamala Win

Julian Nader Saliani

Sep 21, 2024 — 14 min read

This post is very simple:

I've aggregated 34 polls that show the immense popularity of a ceasefire and emphasize the positive impact a weapons embargo would have on Kamala Harris's chances of winning the election.

I wish I didn't have to make this list, but I'm consistently seeing Democrats and Liberals (and even some Progressives) make the argument that this isn't an issue that will impact the election, often saying that "not enough voters care about Gaza for it to matter".

I hope this comprehensive list of polls can dispel this ridiculous argument so more pressure can be applied to get a weapons embargo implemented ASAP.

Poll 1: Split Ticket / Data For Progress, Conducted From July 1st to July 3rd (2,067 US Likely Voters)

Highlights:

The generic ballot poll found Dems had a +3 lead over Republicans. When told that both Republicans and Democrats agree with Israel’s approach, the Dems +3 lead becomes a tie.
However, if the Democrat is said to support “an immediate ceasefire and a halt of military aid and arms sales to Israel”, the lead doubles to +6, driven mainly by reaching independents and non-voters.

Source:

Poll 2: AAI Online Poll, Conducted From July 31st - August 1st (2,505 Americans)

Highlights:

Harris’s support rises from 44% to 49% if she endorses a suspension of US Arms Shipments “until there was a cease-fire and withdrawal of forces from Gaza”.
About half respondents said an immediate ceasefire is “very important” to them.

Source:

Poll 3: YouGov/IMEU Policy Project, Conducted From July 25 - Aug 9 (1,130 Swing State Voters)

Highlights:

34% of PA voters, 35% of AR voters, 39% of GA voters are more likely to support the Dem nominee if they vowed to withhold weapons to Israel (less likely was between 5% - 7%).
At least 80% of respondents in each state supported a ceasefire, while more than 60% disapproved of unconditional military aid to Israel.

Source:

Poll 4: NBC News National Poll, Conducted From Oct 4 - 8 (1,000 Registered Voters)

Highlights:

9% of registered voters think the issue of "Israel's military conflict against Hamas and Hezbollah" is the fifth most important issue out of the list tested here, more important than Guns/Health care/Social Security and Medicare.
Kamala's worst performing issue is "Handling Israel's military conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah" with 30% of voters think Kamala is better than on versus 48% think Trump is better.
17% say "Neither would be good", which is far more than any other issue (closest is "Dealing with health care" at 11%).

Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25201760-240478-nbc-october-2024-poll_101324-release

Poll 5: CAIR Election Survey of Muslim Voters, Conducted From Aug 25 - 27 (1,159 Muslim Voters)

Highlights:

42.3% of Muslim voters support Jill Stein versus 41.0% supporting Kamala Harris.
5.4% of Muslim voters will not be voting

Source: https://www.cair.com/press_releases/breaking-cairs-final-election-poll-shows-stein-and-harris-still-tied-among-muslim-voters-trump-trailing/

Poll 6: Blueprint Poll, Conducted From August 31 - Sep 2 (3623 Registered Voters in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, WI)

Highlights

53% of Swing State voters either want Kamala to "Reverse the Biden administrations's approach" or "Develop her own new approach" regarding Israel and Palestine, versus 11% who want to "continue the Biden Administration approach"
65% of Sun Belt voters either want Kamala to "Reverse the Biden administrations's approach" or "Develop her own new approach" regarding Israel and Palestine, versus 12% who want to "continue the Biden Administration approach"
67% of Sun Belt voters either want Kamala to "Reverse the Biden administrations's approach" or "Develop her own new approach" regarding Israel and Palestin,e versus 10% who want to "continue the Biden Administration approach"
Harris is -6 in Net Trust of "Israel and Palestine", her third worst issue tied with Immigration

Source 1: https://blueprint2024.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Blueprint_Swing_State_2_Topline_-DECISION-POINTS_10.29.24-UPDATED.pdf

Source 2: https://blueprint2024.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Blueprint_Swing_State_Topline_Final__UPDATED_9.6.24.pdf

Poll 7: Blueprint Poll, Conducted From April 27 - April 29 (943 voters)

Highlights

52% of young people prioritize the issue of "Israel and Palestine", only 3% behind abortion and 2% ahead of Climate Change.

Source: https://blueprint2024.com/polling/youth-poll-may/

Poll 8: The Economist/YouGov Poll, Conducted From Oct 19 - 22 (1,615 Registered Voters)

Highlights:

A plurality of voters, 34%, are in favor of "decreasing military aid to Israel"
53% of Liberal, 45% of Harris voters, 45% of 18-29 aged respondents, 41% of 30-44 aged respondents and 40% of Independents voters are in favor of decreasing military aid to Israel.
60% of Liberals, 54% of Harris voters, 49% of Democrats 40% of Hispanics say "Yes" to the question "Is there a genocide in Palestine".

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econtoplines_yNCDxST.pdf

Poll 9: YouGov Survey: Importance of 2024 Election Events, Conducted From Oct 30 - Nov 2 (1,143 adult citizens

Highlights:

71% think "the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict" is either "very important" or "somewhat important" in influencing the outcome of the election.
73% of Harris voters, 65% of Independents, and 80% of Trump voters think "the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict" is either "very important" or "somewhat important" in influencing the outcome of the election.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Importance_of_2024_Election_Events_poll_results.pdf

Poll 10: CBS New Poll of Registered Voters in PA, Conducted From Oct 22 - Oct 28 (1,272 registered voters in PA)

Highlights:

Regarding "the war between Israel and Hamas", 34% think this is a major factor and 48% think it is a minor factor in voting for president (a total of 82%).
88% of under 30 registered voters in Pennsylvania either think this is a major (41%) or minor (47%) factor in voting for President.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/cbsnews_20241027_pa_1.pdf

Poll 11: CBS New Poll of Registered Voters in AR, Conducted From Oct 11 - Oct 16 (1,431 registered voters in AR)

Highlights:

Regarding "the war between Israel and Hamas", 34% think this is a major factor and 44% think it is a minor factor in voting for president (a total of 78%).
79% of under 30 registered voters in Arizona either think this is a major (35%) or minor (44%) factor in voting for President.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/cbsnews_20241016_az_1_updated.pdf

Poll 12: The Times / Say Poll: Registered Voters in Battle Ground States, Conducted From Oct 25 - Oct 31 (6,577 registered voters in Swing States AZ/GA/MI/NV/NC/PA/WI)

Highlights:

39% of PA voters want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel, above 27% who want to stay the same or 20% who increase military aid.
63% of under 30 voters, 49% of Democrats, 45% of Independents in Pennsylvania want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel.
44% of WI voters want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel, above 26% who want to stay the same or 18% who increase military aid.
62% of under 30 voters, 52% of Democrats, 49% of Independents in Wisconsin want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel.
39% of AZ voters want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel, above 27% who want to stay the same or 22% who increase military aid.
43% of under 30 voters, 48% of Democrats, 46% of Independents in Arizona want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel.
43% of MI voters want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel, above 25% who want to stay the same or 19% who increase military aid.
56% of under 30 voters, 48% of Democrats, 39% of Independents in Michigan want to decrease or stop providing any military aid to Israel.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20241101.pdf

Poll 13: The Economist/YouGov Poll, Conducted From Oct 26 - 29 (1,587 Adults Citizens)

Highlights:

45% of Liberals, 39% of Harris voters, 37% of Democrats, 35% of 18-44 aged respondents are in favor of "decreasing military aid to Israel".
56% think it is either "very likely" or "fairly likely" that "the war between Israel and Hamas will lead to a wider war involving other countries".
61% of Harris voters, 50% of Moderates, and even 66% of Trump voters

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_NgtZTja.pdf

Poll 14: YouGov Survey: Israel - Hamas War Oct - 9 (1,114 Adult Citizens)

Highlights:

60% of Harris voters, 58% of Democrats, 49% of 18-29, 37% of 30-44 adult citizens think Israel committed war crimes in Gaza.
50% of Independents, 48% of 18-29 and 54% of all voters disapprove of Biden's handling of Israel.
52% of Harris voters and 45% of Democrats this it is wrong to allow Israel settlements to be built in the West Bank.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Israel_Hamas_War_poll_results_31ErZhl.pdf

Poll 15: CAIR Election Survey of Muslim Voters, Conducted From Aug 25 - 27 (1,159 Muslim Voters)

Highlights:

29.1% of Muslim voters support Jill Stein versus 29.4$ supporting Kamala Harris.
A notable 16% of Muslim voters remain undecided, reflecting ongoing concerns over critical issues. Additionally, 8.3% say they will likely not vote in November’s election.
98% of Muslim respondents disapprove of Joe Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.

Source: https://www.cair.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/CAIRMuslimVoterSurvey.pdf

Poll 16: CAIR Presidential Election Survey Follow-up Report (1,159 Muslim Voters)

Stein leads in Arizona (35%), Michigan (40%), Wisconsin (44%) where as Harris leads in Georgia (43%) and PA (37%).
Stein has 26% and 27% of support from those who voted in 2020/2022 versus Harris at 32%/30%.
Stein had 49% and 65% of low & moderate likely voters versus Kamala at 33% of high likely voters.

Source: https://www.cair.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/DeepDive.pdf

Poll 17: The Economist/YouGov Poll, Conducted From September 8 - 10 (1,626 Adult Citizens)

Highlights:

49% of Harris voters think Israel is trying to influence the election.
46% of Harris voters and 74% of Trump voters think Israel prefers Trump as the winner in this election.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_k1paNHZ.pdf

Poll 18: October 2024 AP-NORC Center Poll, Oct 11 - 14 (1,072 adults)

Highlights:

35% trust Harris more on "the situation in the Middle East" versus 38% for Trump, and 20% trust neither (only one other issue has a neither total above 20% with Climate Change).
57% of respondents say the U. S. Government either has "a lot" or "some" responsibility for "the escalation of the war in the Middle East".
42% of respondents somewhat/strongly oppose "sending government funds to aid Israel's military" versus 33% who support.
84% are extremely/very/somewhat concerned that "the US will be drawn into a war in the Middle East", an increase of 3% versus April.

Source: https://apnorc.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/October-topline_Middle-East.pdf

Poll 19: Cato Institute / YouGov Swing State Survey, Conducted through September 9th (1,500 Voters: 500 WI / 500 PA / 500 MI)

Highlights:

Between 53% - 60% of voters thank US should send less or stop sending Israel military aid.
Between 70% - 77% think it is likely that the Israel - Hamas war will lead to a broader war in the Middle East.
Across all three swing states, more than 88 percent of Democrats supported an immediate cease-fire, while more than 78 percent of independents supported one.
A majority of voters also supported making military aid to Israel conditional or not supplying it at all: 61 percent in Wisconsin, 51 percent in Pennsylvania, and 56 percent in Michigan. Limiting aid to Israel’s cause was supported by 74 percent of Democrats in Wisconsin, and 64 in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Between 50% - 61% think we should either put conditions on military aid or don’t support military aid to Israel.

Source: https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2024-09/Toplines_Cato2024ForeignPolicyToplines.pdf

Poll 20: YouGov commissioned by AJP Action, Conducted in May 2024 (2,500 total respondents across Swing States AR/MI/MN/PA/WI)

Highlights:

Between 74% - 83% of swing state respondents support an immediate & permanent ceasefire.
Between 19% - 24% were less likely to vote for Biden given his handling of his war in Gaza.
Between 40% - 48% were more likely to vote for Biden if he imposed a ceasefire & conditioned military aid to Israel.

Source: https://ajpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/YouGov-Polling-Results-Full-Report-2024.pdf

Poll 21: CBS News / YouGov, Conducted From June 5-7 (2,063 Adults in the US | 1,616 registered voters)

Highlights:

61% of overall voters and 77% of Democrats think we should not send weapons & supplies to Israel.
59% of overall voters and 79% of Democrats think Biden should encourage Israel to decrease or stop military actions.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/740568401/Cbsnews-20240609-SUN-NAT#1fullscreen=1

Poll 22: 2024 Chicago Council Survey, Conducted From June 21–July 1, 2024 (2,106 respondents)

Highlights:

A majority (53 percent) of Americans, including 68 percent of Democrats, believe the U.S. should restrict military aid to Israel so it cannot use the aid in military operations against Palestinians.
34% of Independents and 40% of Democrats think the US is supporting Israel too much, versus 14% and 8% who think are not supporting enough.

Source: https://globalaffairs.org/research/public-opinion-survey/americans-see-united-states-playing-positive-role-middle-east?utm_source=media&utm_campaign=ccs&utm_medium=cnn

Poll 23: The Economist / YouGov Polling, Conducted From May 5 - 7 (1813 US Adults)

Highlights:

59% of Biden voters, 63% of Liberals, 54% of Dems say Israel’s military response is “too harsh”.
86% of Biden voters, 49% of Trump voters, 84% of Liberals, 81% of Dems support a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war.
60% of Biden voters, 65% of Liberals, 56% of Dems say that the pro-Palestine college protestors have been “Non-violent” (respective saying violent are 17%/11%/17%).

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_Agwhapd.pdf#page=89

Poll 24: Yahoo! News / YouGov, Conducted From April 11 - 15 (1,746 US Adults)

Highlights:

57% of 2020 Biden voters, 53% of Democrats, 38% of all Registered voters think Israel’s military response has been too harsh.
57% of Biden prospective voters, 52% of Dems, 38% of Ind want Israel to de-escalate military action (20%/21%/26% want to take further action).
72% of Biden prospective voters, 68% of Dem, 53% of Ind want the US to broker a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/20240415_yahoo_tabs.pdf

Poll 25: Data for Progress, Conducted From June 5-6 (1,238 likely voters)

Highlights:

86% of Dems / 64% of Ind / 62% of Swing State voters support the proposed ceasefire deal proposed by Biden (9% and 27% oppose).
70% of Dems / 51% of Ind / 53% of Swing State voters support withdrawing Military Aid if a ceasefire deal is not accepted.
64% of Dems / 44% of Ind / 45% of Swing State voters think Israel is committing War Crimes in Gaza.

Source: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/6/12/voters-support-proposed-ceasefire-deal-to-end-fighting-in-gaza

Poll 26: Data for Progress, Conducted From April 26 -29 (1,265 likely voters)

Highlights:

83% of Dems / 65% of Ind / 56% of Rep support a permanent ceasefire and de-escalation.
56% of Dems / 36% of Ind believe Israel is committing a genocide in Gaza.
42% of Dems / 41% of Ind support decreasing military aid to Israel (versus 13% across both support increasing)
52% of Dems / 51% of Ind disapprove of Congress passing $4 billion to replenish Israel missile systems.

Source: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/5/8/support-for-a-permanent-ceasefire-in-gaza-increases-across-party-lines

Poll 27: Data for Progress, Conducted From February 22 - 25 (1,232 likely voters)

Highlights:

77% of Democrats / 69% of Independents / 56% of Republicans support a permanent ceasefire/de-escalation.
63% of all voters support pledging to stop building settlements
59% of all voters oppose Israel occupying Gaza at the conclusion of the way.

Source: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/2/27/voters-support-the-us-calling-for-permanent-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-conditioning-military-aid-to-israel

Poll 28: Data for Progress, Conducted From Nov 22 - 25 (1,201 likely voters)

Highlights:

76% of Democrats, 57% of Independents, 49% of Republicans support the US calling for a permanent ceasefire & de-escalation of violence in Gaza.
76% of Dems / 61% of Ind / 49% of Rep support conditioning military aid to Israel.

Source: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2023/12/5/voters-want-the-us-to-call-for-a-permanent-ceasefire-in-gaza-and-to-prioritize-diplomacy

Poll 29: Data for Progress, Conducted From October 18 - 19 (1,329 likely voters)

80% of Democrats / 57% of Independents / 56% of Republicans agree with the statement:

"The U.S. should call for a ceasefire and a de-escalation of violence in Gaza. The U.S. should leverage its close diplomatic relationship with Israel to prevent further violence and civilian deaths."

Source: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2023/10/19/voters-agree-the-us-should-call-for-a-ceasefire-and-de-escalation-of-violence-in-gaza

Poll 30: Umass Amherst National Poll, Conducted From January 25 - 30 (1,064 respondents)

Highlights:

50% said Israel was “probably” or “definitely” committing a genocide.
59% disapproved of President Biden’s handling of the Israeli-Hamas war, versus 31% approved.

Source: https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/january2024stateofnationbidentoplines-65c20934579cd.pdf

Poll 31: Gallup Survey, Conducted From March 1 - 20, 2024 (1,019 US adults)

Highlights:

55% of Americans say they “disapprove of Israel’s military action”, up from 45% in November.
Only 36% approve of the siege on Gaza, versus 50% back in November.

Source:https://news.gallup.com/poll/642695/majority-disapprove-israeli-action-gaza.aspx

Poll 32: CEPR & YouGov, Conducted From February 27 - March 1, 2024 (1,000 Adults)

Highlights:

62% of Biden voters support blocking arms shipments versus 14% who oppose.
Only 27% of American’s say they agree with the current policy of sending weapons to Israel.

Source: https://truthout.org/articles/most-americans-want-the-us-to-stop-sending-weapons-to-israel-poll-finds/

Poll 33: The Economist / YouGov, Conducted From January 21 - 23 (1,664 US Adults)

Highlights:

39% of Biden voters and 47% of Liberals voters support decreasing military aid to Israel (versus 12% more and 36% staying the same).
51% of Biden voters say Israel’s military response is “too harsh”.
50% of Biden voters, 60% of Liberals and 49% of 18-29 respondents think Israel is committing a genocide in Palestine.
58% of Biden voters, 59% of Liberals, 59% of 18-29 respondents think Israel War will lead to a wider war.

Source: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_i9N6Z0N.pdf

Poll 34: The Economist / YouGov, Conducted From September 21 - 24 (1,622 US Adults)

Highlights:

67% Liberals, 59% Harris voters, 60% Lean Dem, 48% 18-29 respondents answered 'Yes' to the question 'Is there a genocide in Palestine?"
70% Liberals, 60% Harris voters, 60% Lean Dem, 54% 18-29 respondents, 47% 30-44 respondents disapprove of Israel attacks that use US Military Weapons
63% Liberals, 54% Harris voters, 51% 18-29 respondents want to 'decrease military aid to Israel' (versus 6%, 6% and 10% respectively who want an increase).
40% of Independents favor decreasing military aid to Israel versus 22% who want to maintain versus 11% who want an increase.
Source:

https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_YtkV7hy.pdf